France has had no effective government for 50 days, which is a record since 1946 and the fourth and fifth Republic. However, this situation is not unique from a European perspective, as the process of forming a government often involves prolonged negotiations.
In his latest reports, Hadrien Camatte, senior economist for France, Belgium, Eurozone, analyzes the various potential candidates for the position and the stakes of this appointment for French political and economic life. The major focus being the key issue of the back-to-school season: the presentation and the vote of the budget.
" The next government's room for maneuver appears to be very limited, with a tight schedule and difficult budgetary choices, in a political context that will remain unstable. "
Hadrien Camatte
Senior economist for France, Belgium, Eurozone
The formation of a government takes time in order to find compromises and avoid the immediate overthrow of the next Prime Minister, which could create instability. Additionally, the French constitution does not impose any time limit for the President to appoint a Prime Minister.
Should the negotiations to form a government fail, a technical government could be formed before new snap elections next summer, potentially resulting in a hung parliament once again. This raises the question of the importance of having a Prime Minister, especially in a hyper-presidential system like that of France, where the parliament has been strengthened since the 2008 revision of the constitution.
“In a cohabitation or a coalition government, the Prime Minister could regain a key role in the institutions.”
The Prime Minister has important powers explicitly defined in the French Constitution. He shall direct the actions of the Government and plays a central role in the administrative process. This role becomes even more crucial when the President does not have a clear and sufficient majority in the National Assembly, as has been the case since the legislative elections of 29/30 June and 6/7 July 2024.
The next government will need to compromise in order to avoid immediate overthrow, which will likely involve implementing parts of the programs of the supporting parties. With a tight timetable and a difficult budgetary context, the government's room for maneuver will be very limited, with a budget to be submitted to Parliament no later than 1st October.
