Infraday 2025: Unlocking Growth-Induced Challenges

Amid geopolitical tensions and defense spending pressures, particularly in Europe, environmental transition has seemingly taken a back seat in state priorities. However, the energy transition is still underway. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero scenario, solar and wind generation is projected to increase from 12% of global electricity in 2022 to 71% by 2050.

Simultaneously, the demand for telecommunications infrastructure, especially data centers, is surging due to the growth of digital technologies, cloud computing, fiber optics, and artificial intelligence.

At Infraday 2025, the message was clear: activity in the infrastructure sector remains – and is poised to remain - robust, with a 40% increase in deals expected in 2025 compared to 2022. Capital deployed in infrastructure globally has doubled in the past five years, reaching approximately $2.1 trillion, and the trend is set dynamic given the enormous needs.

Introducing this 14th edition, Antoine Saint-Olive, Global Head of Infrastructure, observed that deglobalization, as countries seek autonomy and security of supply, also influences the demand for infrastructure, highlighting the associated challenges: political risks in developed countries - “a new consideration” - supply chain issues, uncertainties regarding the long-term profitability of Artificial Intelligence, which sees hundreds of billions of dollars spent annually, and the vast energy needs inherent to its deployment. He also pointed out the impact of renewable energy penetration on electricity prices and grid stability, providing an overview of key issues discussed during the day.

Among other substantial requirements, nearshoring and industrial onshoring are boosting manufacturing and logistics construction, notably in the US. Environmental concerns necessitate critical investments in water and agri-food infrastructure, as transport must address maintenance backlogs, especially in rail, roads, and bridges. Freight railways, ports, airports, and toll roads are poised to benefit from increased demand for domestic transport and strategic supply chain resilience.

This strong dynamic in infrastructure comes with a prevailing trend: the convergence of sectors. “Discussions around telecom now encompass energy and water, while transport decarbonization is closely tied to electricity needs. The recycling of critical metals is essential, and all sectors must integrate data and AI. Lastly, given the rise in geopolitical risks, we will likely see greater development of dual-use infrastructure for defense purposes.” assessed Fabrice Croppi, Global Head of Investment Banking and Real Assets, in concluding the conference.

“This convergence has been fully integrated into Natixis CIB’s model, with strong infrastructure financing teams working alongside sector experts.”. Croppi also highlighted that the lines between infrastructure and leverage are blurring, with infrastructure funds adopting private equity-style value creation techniques. Finally, he concluded the event by reaffirming the irreplaceable value of human input in the face of AI deployment.

In a world where trade routes are being redrawn, where energy, defence, and technology are all part of the same conversation, infrastructure has become much more than concrete and cables. It’s about sovereignty, resilience, and power.

Gérard Araud, Former Ambassador of France to the USA, Israel, and the UN; Jean-François Robin, Global Head of Research at Natixis CIB; and Niall Mills, Managing Partner and Global Head of Igneo Infrastructure Partners explored these tectonic shifts in the opening session.

Discussions initially focused on the impact of the new U.S. administration on the global balance of power. For Gérard Araud, Donald Trump's arrival merely accelerated an existing trend: the U.S. acting unilaterally and retreating from global engagement, akin to a pre-World War II strategy, largely to cater to American public opinion.

As a result, “the Western bloc no longer exerts dominant influence”. That said, "West is not dead,", as Jean-François Robin agreed, adding that the U.S. are - and will remain - the world's leading power. The Global South has simply gained strength, seeking cooperation on equal terms. Both experts don’t foresse any unified "anti-Western" bloc, led by China, as emerging countries recognize the benefits of a weakened Western bloc but do not necessarily adopt a hostile stance, provided their sovereignty is respected. To extend its influence on the Global South, « China uses economic partnership and infrastructure diplomacy”, Gérard Araud stated.

The U.S. is therefore primarily focused on trade and is engaged in a “Cold War 2.0” against the entire world, “based on trade and technolgy rather than military confrontation”, especially with China. "America first, targeting China first." Jean-François Robin said, while noting that American households are the first to face the inflationary impacts of tariffs. “The U.S. now barely account for 10% of China's exports”. Who will win the battle for AI? China, with no doubt, according to Jean-François Robin “as it has access to abundant, cheap, energy, bolstered by its impressive advances in the electrification of the country”.

Turning to the Middle East, Gérard Araud noted that, as the U.S. no longer rely on oil produced by the region, it has effectively outsourced its protection to Israel, the “hegemon master of the game”, primarily in opposition to Iran. “Middle East is becoming a regional conflict”, he stated.

 “The age of oil will not stop for lack of oil, just as the age of stone did not stop for lack of stones.” Jean-François Robin remarked. The Gulf countries operate a remarkable repositioning, exporting oil while massively investing in green assets. Niall Mills confirmed that these sovereign funds are among the most active global investors today, investing massively in clean energy, logistics, and data infrastructure.

From a diplomatic angle, Gérard Araud precised that they avoid to choose sides between the U.S., China, Europe and Russia, as neutrality provides leverage.

Renewables and now defense could form a new growth engine for Europe, supported by its 450 million wealthy consumers, peace, the rule of law, and a multilateral spirit. Jean-François Robin urged the old continent to foster its Repower EU and ReArm Europe investment initiatives within its borders not to miss the boat. In addition, “Europe over-regulates itself”, he deplored, acting like a 45% tariff on goods, 110% on services. “We need scale, speed, and deregulation to compete.”.

Niall Mills agreed that Europe needs faster decisions and simpler frameworks to attract capital, while pointing out that we’re entering a dual-use cycle where civilian and defence infrastructure merge.

“Denial,” was the term for Gérard Araud to describe Europe’s refusal to recognize the fading U.S. commitment to its civilization, which has thus far ensured decades of peace. “Asia is advancing, and Europe is still debating. If we don’t invest in industry, innovation, and defense, we’ll remain spectators of history.” He doubts the relationship will return to business as usual in 2029.

Panelists indeed concluded that the historical peace paradise in Europe is unfortunately over, echoing the sentiment that "whoever wants peace should prepare for war", in military terms. Europe must rebuild its defense capabilities - not to wage war, but to deter it, especially as Russia is preparing for its next move. However, Jean-François Robin highlighted that the reconstruction of Ukraine will represent the largest infrastructure project of the next decade.

Digital technology is a key component of growth and innovation, and with important infrastructure consequences. The supply and demand of data centers are expected to growth 10-15% annually due to the surge in data consumption, notably from AI and cloud services.

Indeed, according to the IEA's 2025 Energy and AI report, data centre electricity consumption is set to more than double to around 945 TWh by 2030, which is slightly more than Japan’s total electricity consumption today. In addition to this are challenges due to water consumption, temperature, and location.

Echoing the previous macro discussion panel, the crucial question arises: how can we ensure data sovereignty while integrating resource constraints and access to energy and water, while also maintaining proximity to users, the holy grail for financial markets, and other algorithm users?

Thomas Reynaud, CEO of Iliad initiated the discussions surrounding market shifts, notably in light of sovereignty issues and AI disruption, in a keynote speech with Rebecca Smith from Natixis CIB's Green & Sustainable Hub.

Then, in a panel discussion, Robert Wallin, Managing Director, Telecom & Tech Industry Group and Laëtitia Fournier, Head of Data & Innovation, invited Ralph Cho, Co-CEO of Apterra Infrastruture Capital; Richard Bienfait, Chief Financial Officer of Stack Infrastructure; and Alexander Oyaert, Chief Investment Officer of Data4, to address these pressing issues from both lender and operator perspectives.

So far, the data center industry has been fueled by exponential data consumption alongside high revenue predictability. Multibillion USD/EUR developments are being agreed upon and financed, supported by long-term contracts - often spanning 10, 15, or even 20 years - with investment-grade hyperscale tenants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, META, and Oracle.

Thousands of data centers have indeed emerged worldwide, particularly in the United States, which processes more than 40% of global data, leading to a fivefold increase in capacity over the past 20 years.

With both supply and demand expanding at an impressive rate of 10-15% annually, a crucial question arises: how much capacity can be absorbed in the long term? Is there a risk for a glut in the market over time, as some of the older data centers are coming to their contractual end. How far will hyperscalers choose to extend? Panelists were invited to share their insights from various perspectives.

Furthermore, and the question is exacerbated by the explosion of AI: will future needs align with those of today? Can existing data centers be repurposed to meet changing demands? As, for instance, we know that the Graphic Processing Units (GPUs) required for AI usage are heavier and denser than traditional cloud servers, requiring enhanced cooling systems and more robust land foundations.

One major concern for the AI sector is, at this point, the return on massive investments, considering that the equipment inside an AI Data Center could be 10 times the cost of the value of the infrastructure, compared to up to 3 times for typical Cloud Services.

What if AI developers should not utilize all this capacity over time? Many smaller developers of AI applications are relying on NeoClouds and other non-IG offtakers for GPUs as a service. How do DC investors look at the business opportunity beyond the IG hyperscalers?

To discover their thoughts, watch the full replays!

In April 2025, Spain experienced a significant blackout, drawing attention to the challenges of the rapid penetration of renewable energy and its integration into existing power grids.  Surprinsingly, with nearly 70% of the energy generated from renewables at the time, Spain was considered one of the best grids in Europe. The blackout highlighted critical questions about grid stability and the adequacy of current systems.

As global power generation capacity is expected to more than double by 2030, an impressive growth primarily fueled by the rapid rise of PV and other renewable energy, the industry must overcome several challenges, including supply chain issues, financing, and regulatory considerations.

More specifically, the industry must address the challenges of storing, transporting this intermittent source of energy, ensure the stability of the grid and other grid integration issues.

Luis Alvargonzalez, Country Manager of Spain - Zelestra; Yves-Eric Francois, Chief Financial Officer - Neoen; Antonio de Juan Fernandez, Head of Spain and Portugal - AFRY Management Consulting; and Aaron Zubaty, Founder and Chief Executive Officer - Eolian, discussed potential solutions in a panel moderated by Natixis CIB’s Aitor Alava, Head of Infrastructure & Energy Finance Latin America and Oscar Garcia, Head of Infrastructure & Energy Finance Spain & Portugal.

Together, they explored three key strategies: diversifying the energy mix, investing in transmission infrastructure, and enhancing energy storage capabilities, followed by a one-on-one discussion where Fabien Roques, Executive Vice-President at Compass Lexecon, identified key bottlenecks and priorities from the perspective of grid infrastructure operators with Stéphane Dubos, Co-Head of Low Carbon Energies at Natixis CIB.