Commodities Markets: Exploring Key themes for 2026

Commodities are at the center of the 2026 markets outlook, shaped by a rapidly evolving geopolitical and policy environment. Many of the key questions for 2026 stem from shifting global power dynamics, particularly around access to resources. US policy under President Trump has increasingly focused on securing energy market dominance, with interventions and strategic pressure points spanning Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, and beyond.

China, meanwhile, continues to pursue electrification and renewable expansion at pace, positioning itself as a leading force in the energy transition. This contrast, between a US pushing aggressively on traditional energy markets and a China advancing electrification, sits at the heart of today’s geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape.

In the context of ongoing trade tensions, China has also emerged as an early beneficiary of the first phase of tariff disputes, in part through its ability to leverage its dominance in rare earths. Whether this remains a durable source of leverage, or follows the pattern seen in 2025, remains an open question.

With all of this in mind, Natixis CIB’s Commodities Markets analysts, Bernard Dahdah and Joel Hancock, brought together 24 experts from across the bank, to share their views on market trends and what we can expect in 2026.

Gold is expected to enter a consolidation phase in 2026, with prices averaging approximately $4,300 - 4,400/oz. While the de-dollarization narrative is expected to persist – potentially even accelerate amid rising uncertainty surrounding US geopolitical policy and the redefinition of the global order –this supportive factor is likely to be offset by moderating demand dynamics.

Central bank purchases are expected to slow in tonnage terms, as sharply higher prices constrain purchasing capacity. In parallel, jewellery demand is weakening, with clear evidence of demand destruction, a trend that has instead supported platinum. Additionally, as policy rates approach the end of the tightening cycle, the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes less punitive, but no longer materially supportive.

Silver faces more pronounced downside risks. With approximately 65% of demand linked to industrial usage, the outlook is closely tied to macro and manufacturing trends, particularly in China. Chinese solar installations alone account for roughly 10% of global silver demand, and the country has already met its 2030 solar capacity targets. A slowdown in incremental demand from this source is therefore expected.

Silver’s higher volatility relative to gold, combined with tariff-related uncertainty – particularly around Section 232 – has contributed to elevated prices. As tariff uncertainty potentially peaks this year, including possible clarification via judicial rulings, this premium is expected to unwind, resulting in lower silver prices.

Copper prices are expected to moderate, averaging $10,800 - 11,000/tonne in 2026, which remains elevated by historical standards. Current pricing is viewed as being driven largely by uncertainty around US tariff policy and the potential expansion of tariffs to include copper products. Ongoing arbitrage flows into the US continue to distort prices above fundamental levels.

While supply disruptions last year, including stoppages at Grasberg and other operations, supported prices, these assets are expected to return to production. Of particular importance is the Cobre Panamá mine, which accounts for approximately 1% of global copper supply. Given the material impact of its closure on Panama’s GDP, and the ongoing independent audit process, a decision on reopening is expected by mid-year. A return to production would meaningfully alter the supply outlook.

Aluminium prices are also considered elevated, supported in part by their strong correlation with copper. Over the past 18 months, the copper-to-aluminium ratio has moved toward levels that incentivize substitution, mechanically supporting aluminium prices. Should copper prices decline, aluminium is expected to follow.

Nickel represents a more constructive case within base metals. Prices are expected to average $17,800 - 18,000/tonne, driven primarily by Indonesia’s intention to reduce mining quotas.

In oil markets, the base case continues to reflect an oversupplied environment, particularly in Q1 2026. Oversupply is estimated at approximately 1.8mn b/d on paper, with a large share of this clearing into the OECD. Assuming a normalization of geopolitical risks short term supply outages, this dynamic is expected to place downward pressure on prices.

However, the downside is likely to be limited. First, OPEC is expected to respond once material OECD inventory builds become visible, potentially through additional production cuts at the April meeting.

Second, China is expected to maintain elevated strategic petroleum reserve purchases, supported by continued storage capacity expansion and a more uncertain geopolitical environment. Third, US upstream production is expected to weaken, with declines led by private producers. On this basis, Brent crude prices are expected to average approximately $62/bbl in 2026, modestly above consensus expectations.

For European gas, demand creation remains the central theme. Storage levels are expected to be materially lower year-on-year following colder winter conditions. Nevertheless, under the base case, sufficient LNG supply is expected to allow for stock replenishment, assuming scheduled LNG projects come online as planned.

Key risks include delays at the Golden Pass LNG project and operational performance at LNG Canada. If these projects proceed as expected, Europe should be able to refill storage while excess LNG is directed toward emerging Asian markets. In this scenario, oil products parity is expected to act as a ceiling for global gas prices, with TTF averaging approximately EUR 27/MWh in 2026. LNG project delays would support a higher outlook.  

In carbon markets, structural tightening is evident when examining the allowance supply trajectory. However, sustainable price appreciation requires stronger industrial hedging activity. Recent price strength has been largely speculative and susceptible to macro-driven selloffs. Some position rationalization is expected, potentially leading to short-term price softness.

Despite this, the medium-term outlook remains constructive, with EUAs expected to average around €85/tonne in 2026.