France’s public debt looks to be on an upward trend that could continue until at least 2029.
After two consecutive years of fiscal slippage and a public deficit that will exceed 6% in 2024 (vs 5.5% of GDP in 2023), the French government announced a budget effort of EUR 60bn to reduce the deficit to 5% in 2025. The aim for 2029: bring the public deficit back below the 3% threshold, in line with the European Commission’s rules.
According to Natixis CIB Research’s baseline scenario, French public debt will be on an upward trend at least until 2029, when it should stabilize at 119% of GDP – having previously peaked at 115% of GDP in 2020 and having stood at 111% in 2023.
While the debt trajectory may rise in the short term, a concerted effort towards fiscal consolidation could bring debt back onto a more sustainable path, which Natixis CIB Research sees as stabilizing in their baseline scenario or declining based on the government's assumptions.
To find out more about France’s debt in detail, read the latest report from Hadrien Camatte and Bastien Aillet :
