Since the late 2010s, the evolution of global trade relations has been characterized by a dual phenomenon of relative weakening and fragmentation of trade. These trends have accelerated in the post-COVID period, driven by increasing geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the development of industrial policies aimed at supporting key sectors—particularly to enhance the resilience of supply chains—tends to dampen trade by promoting import substitution.
In a special report, Nathalie Dezeure, Head of Macro Research Europe and Financial Institutions, presents stylized facts confirming the evolution of global trade relations.
The relationship between trade and GDP growth remains stable, even amid a proliferation of measures detrimental to trade.
Nathalie Dezeure Head of Macro Research Europe
Although fragmentation remains modest on a global scale, recent developments in bilateral trade indicate an acceleration, particularly between the United States and Europe. Trade between China and the United States has significantly declined, benefiting Europe and its regional partners, such as Mexico and Canada. The upcoming U.S. elections on November 5 are a determining factor; a second term for Donald Trump could further accelerate fragmentation and weaken trade flows.
In Europe, we do not observe a similar break in trade relations with China, although a real rupture has occurred in trade with Russia. Recent years have been characterized by a gradual reorientation of trade. Within the EU, one notable development is the strengthening of Poland's position in intra-EU trade, highlighting a new dynamic in the region.
In this context, the emergence of non-aligned countries, often referred to as "connectors," plays a crucial role in providing greater resilience to trade as intermediaries. Countries like Vietnam, Poland, and Mexico are increasingly becoming important players in bilateral trade with the United States and the EU, facilitating trade flows in an increasingly fragmented landscape.
