Transcription of the vidéo "The perfect storm"

Jean-François Robin, Global Head Of Natixis CIB Research, speaks in front of the camera 

Text on the screen : the perfect storm. September 16 , 2026  

"Hi everyone. I'm sorry to say so, but the perfect storm seems to be on the horizon these days, with the conflict in Iran not declining, but expanding, keeping oil and gas prices on the high side of expectations. This means some more inflation, higher for longer. The result of that is a tightening of financial conditions, both in the bond market, but as well on the short part of the yield curve, because central banks have no choice but to react to that. « That's a no-brainer », as Christine Lagarde says for the ECB, and the same goes for the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan. All the major central banks are taking note of that and are hiking rates, thus tightening financial conditions.On top of that, we see some cracks here and there in the valuation of the equity market, on the tech side of things. So clearly, a perfect storm seems to be there. Having said that, to finish on a positive note, what we do see is the very impressive resilience of the global economy. The major economies are doing quite well: the US economy is very close to its potential, the Chinese economy is very close to 4.5%, even in Europe we have had to upgrade our scenario, thanks to Germany. We have a little bit of a downgrade of the French GDP, but it's fair to say that overall, the global economy landscape remains quite resilient. So we are not totally pessimistic because at some stage, probably bond rates should be lower and the central banks’ pricing from the market is a little bit too pessimistic in our view. So all in all, so far not so good, clearly, but so far, a very good resilience from the global economy."