Transcription of the vidéo "Back to School Update"

Jean-François Robin, Global Head of Natixis CIB Research, is speaking in front of the camera :

"Hi everyone, back to school. What has changed during the summer? First things first, there is no such thing as a peace in Iran, the conflict continues. We are three months away from the midterm elections and it's nowhere to be seen. What is the impact of that? First things first, on commodity prices, we see oil and gas prices going higher: USD 90 a barrel for oil, electricity prices are as well impacted.

On top of that, you have global warming, this exceptionally hot summer impacting water levels, and so the nuclear power plants, impacting a lot of stuff. So we see this impact on commodity prices. Wheat prices are at their highest in the last three years for instance, so food prices are going higher. The result of that is higher inflation: 3.7% in the US for the PCE, 3.3% for the CPI in Europe.

So central banks have to react to that, maybe not in September for the Fed, we keep our status quo scenario, but definitely we have to change our scenario for the ECB: 25 bps at the next meeting from the ECB, which means tightening of financial conditions due to the central banks, but not only. The biggest impact is currently coming from the bond market."